Key takeaways
- Bitwise raises its 10-year bitcoin target from $1.3M to $1.6M, projecting a 34.3% compound annual growth rate.
- Bitwise's bear case sits at $130,686, while its bull case reaches $3.67M at a 50% store-of-value share.
- Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, says the firm is more bullish on bitcoin than last year.
Bitwise raised its 10-year bitcoin price target from $1.3M to $1.6M by 2036 in its 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, projecting a 34.3% compound annual growth rate. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, summed up the firm's shift in one line:
"We are more bullish on bitcoin today than we were last year."
The precise 2036 base case is $1,599,766, up from $1.3M a year earlier, and the 34.3% rate runs from the roughly $83,557 price the firm used as of Sept. 30. Bitwise's previous $1.3M target ran to 2035 at a 28.3% annual rate, so the new report raises both the price and the projected pace.
Three Scenarios Priced in Dollars
The base case assumes bitcoin captures 25% of the global store-of-value market and 1% of institutional investment assets by 2036. Bitwise's bear case is $130,686 at a 2.5% store-of-value share, while its bull case is $3.67M at a 50% share.
Every one of those scenarios, from the $130,686 bear case to the $3.67M bull case, is quoted in dollars. The spread between them is wide because the store-of-value share Bitwise assumes swings from 2.5% to 50% across the three cases.
A Debt Argument at the Core
The report's base case rests on a monetary argument that Bitcoiners will recognize:
"Rising government debt will push investors toward assets that cannot be printed."
Bitwise raised the target in a year when bitcoin fell to a June low of $58,717, and the firm still came out more bullish on bitcoin than it was last year. The higher target rests on that rising government debt argument rather than on any recent price move.
Why It Matters
Bitwise's own base case rests on rising government debt pushing investors toward assets that cannot be printed, which is the Bitcoin thesis in a single line. Yet Bitwise and everyone else stay obsessed with price predictions like $1.6M by 2036, while few ask whether fiat money will even exist in a decade, given how rapidly currencies are being printed and debased. We think the dollar figure is the least useful part of the forecast, because a target quoted in a debased unit tells savers more about money printing than about Bitcoin. Count your wealth in sats, hold a scarce reserve asset on your own keys, and let the incumbents argue over what their fiat will be worth.
